PARIS — For all the struggles that Athens went through to satisfy its demanding lenders, Greece’s troubles — and those of the rest of Europe — are far from over.
The fever of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis has cooled considerably in recent months, easing fears that the euro zone itself might suddenly fall apart. But a grinding reality has descended on Europe in its place: the prospect of economic stagnation at best and the possibility of another downturn for much of the Continent less than three years after the last recession ended.
“We take one problem off the table for the moment,” said Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York. “That still leaves us having to deal with the dramatic destruction of wealth that has taken place.”
The deal opens the door to new uncertainties, which could once again revive the crisis atmosphere. While Enda Kenny, the Irish prime minister, said that, unlike the Greeks, he had no plans to press losses on banks holding Irish sovereign debt, that stance has inflamed many people in Ireland, who have had to shoulder the banks’ bad debts. And if Ireland asked for write-offs from lenders similar to those Greece is seeking, it could pave the way for demands from Portugal and perhaps larger countries like Spain and Italy.
“The Pandora’s box has been opened for Ireland and Portugal,” and possibly for other countries, Mr. Weinberg said. “We don’t know where this goes.”
Still, the fear that gripped Europe and rippled through the global economy after Greece turned in desperation to its fellow euro zone members for help two years ago has been palpably lacking lately. A few months after that event touched off Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, Ireland received a bailout, followed in short order by Portugal.
Investors worried that Italy and Spain, with two of the euro zone’s largest economies, might falter as well, needing more money to satisfy their creditors than the rest of Europe could possibly raise.
But even though Portugal is in a downward spiral economically, plagued by high debt, a deep recession and more austerity on the horizon, there is little chance it will turn into another Greece, many analysts say.
“The notion of immediate contagion to Portugal from Greece is hard to believe,” said Nicolas Véron, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a research group in Brussels, and a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
Investors began scrutinizing the country when its debt dynamics, like Greece’s, went off the charts. But Portugal has already implemented a wave of changes, including privatizations and structural shifts in the labor markets. Among other things, Portugal also does not have trouble collecting taxes the way Greece does — something that encouraged and appeased investors.
“What investors saw of Portugal when they looked close has appeased them because they realize that Portugal is different,” Mr. Véron said. “So I don’t think contagion will play out this way.”
Markets are also taking a more optimistic view of Italy and Spain, where borrowing costs have come down to more sustainable levels as both countries, under new political leadership, proceed with restructuring plans that are intended not just to reduce high debts and deficits but to lay the foundation for restoring economic growth.
Investors have also been reassured by the European Central Bank’s moves to lower interest rates and open the money taps to protect banks from being pushed to the wall.
“I don’t see what’s on the horizon that would derail this,” said Stefan Schneider, the chief international economist at Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt. “We are no longer in an environment where markets want to pick off Greece and move onto the next country.”
For Mr. Véron, that means Europe may be able to breathe easy, at least for a while. “It doesn’t mean the problems are solved,” he said. “But it removes some of the short-term pressure, and hopefully can create a virtuous circle.”